California Collapsing

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[Femacamper]

California Collapsing
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. | Money and Market | Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Washington and Wall Street seem to be treating California as if it were a sideshow in the financial circus of these turbulent times.

It’s not.

California is home to the largest manufacturing belt in the United States and to Silicon Valley, the nation’s largest high-tech center.

California is America’s most populous state with 38 million people. Its GDP of $1.8 trillion is the largest in the U.S. Its economy is bigger than those of Russia, Brazil, Canada, or India.

And it’s collapsing.

Major California counties are ground zero in the continuing mortgage meltdown:

Los Angeles County with 5.32 percent of mortgages 90 days past due … Monterrey County, 8.02 percent … Imperial, 8.13 … San Bernadino, 8.66 … Madeira, 9.21 … San Joaquin, 9.53 … Riverside, 10.2 … Merced, 10.57 … and more!

California’s inventory of foreclosed homes is skyrocketing. Home prices are plunging. And the impact of surging unemployment is just beginning to show up in the data …


Worst Unemployment in 64 Years

The state’s unemployment rate has surged to 11.5 percent, the worst since World War II.

Last month, California lost 68,900 jobs. And since July 2007, it has lost 859,000 jobs, including 739,500 just in the past 12 months.

Even if the economy recovers, an unlikely scenario in my view, economists agree that California will continue to be slammed by layoffs, at least through the end of this year and probably well into 2010.

And even assuming a national recovery, UCLA’s Anderson Forecast projects an average unemployment rate of 12.1 percent from this fall through next spring.

What about without a national recovery? California’s jobless could go beyond 15 percent.

Worse, if you include part-time workers seeking full-time work plus workers who have given up looking entirely, it could reach 25 percent, exceeding the worst national unemployment levels of the Great Depression.

“Our wallet is empty.
Our bank is closed. And
our credit is dried up.”

These are not the words of a Dr. Doom in New York or a forlorn banker in Georgia. They represent the confession of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger before a rare joint session of the California legislature … and with no exaggeration!

The state faces a stunning $24.3 billion budget deficit, even assuming no significant deterioration in the economy from this point onward. And the state has lost virtually all hope of President Obama declaring, “California is too big to fail.”

California State Treasurer Bill Lockyer tried to make that argument to Washington, and did so with great vigor. But he was rejected. After the long line-up of failed companies with hat in hand in recent months — on the steps of Congress or the White House lawn — some folks in government finally appear to have learned how to just say “no.”

“You’re on your own,” is the message from the president to the governor. “Beyond your share of the stimulus package, that’s it! No more!”

Result: The inevitability of massive state cutbacks, including large numbers of state jobs getting axed — all while the California jobless rate is already 11.5 percent.

How many state jobs are in jeopardy? Right now, Schwarzenegger is proposing laying off 5,000 state employees, as well as slashing education and social welfare programs. But the Anderson Forecast projects that Schwarzenegger’s budget cuts will eventually result in 64,000 job cuts from state government plus countless private-sector and local government jobs.

Massive Downgrades Coming

California’s credit rating is already the lowest among all U.S. states.

But with Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch still greatly influenced by massive conflicts of interest, it’s not nearly low enough.

And sure enough, on Friday, Moody’s tacitly admitted as much, announcing that it may have to cut California’s rating by several notches in one fell swoop!

Standard & Poor’s put California on watch for a possible downgrade a few days earlier. Fitch did the same May 29.

The big problem: Once downgraded, California’s rating is likely to fall below the minimal level legally required for most money market funds, forcing these funds to dump California paper posthaste.

Moody’s wrote:

    “If the Legislature does not take action quickly, the state’s cash situation will deteriorate to the point where the controller will have to delay most non-priority payments in July. … Lack of action could result in a multi-notch downgrade.”

But lack of action is precisely what Sacramento is now becoming most famous for. In fact, in their latest scuffle, Democrats proposed a budget that would raise $2 billion from cigarette taxes and oil companies. But the governor promptly vetoed the plan. So now Sacramento is in a new, escalating battle over the deficit just weeks before the state is expected to run out of cash to meet payroll and other bills.

State officials continue to insist that a state default is unthinkable … much like GM executives said their bankruptcy could never happen.

In my view, there is a very HIGH probability that California will default.

It’s obvious its debt merits a junk bond rating from every Wall Street rating agency.

And it’s equally obvious that the ratings agencies are artificially inflating the rating, stalling downgrades, and grossly understating the risk to investors.

My recommendations:

1. If you wait for Moody’s or S&P to act, it could be too late. Even if you can’t get what you might consider a good price, sell all California paper now!

2. Seriously consider dumping all tax-exempt bonds. I know the income is better than equivalent Treasuries. But if California defaults, it could set off a chain reaction of bond price plunges and defaults throughout the municipal bond market.

3. Don’t underestimate the impact California’s depression is having — and will continue to have — on the rest of the U.S. economy. At $1.8 trillion, the state’s GDP is so large, any further deterioration could wipe out every so-called “green shoot” in the national economy seen to date.

4. Stay safe, with a big portion of your nest egg in cash, tucked away in short-term Treasury bills … and with a very modest portion in gold, as an insurance policy against a dollar decline.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

[Femacamper]

California set to issue IOUs as fiscal crisis weighs
Reuters | Dan Whitcomb and Ciara Linnane | Thursday, June 25, 2009

California's controller said on Wednesday that he would have to issue IOUs in a week if lawmakers can't quickly solve a $24 billion budget deficit, and the state's treasurer plans to tap a reserve fund to meet debt service costs.

The measures came as a budget crisis deepened in the most populous U.S. state and the gridlocked legislature failed to pass a proposed $11 billion in cuts.

"Next Wednesday we start a fiscal year with a massively unbalanced spending plan and a cash shortfall not seen since the Great Depression," Controller John Chiang said in a statement announcing that he would be forced to use IOUs to pay the state's bills beginning on July 2.

"The state's $2.8 billion cash shortage in July grows to $6.5 billion in September and after that we see a double digit freefall," Chiang said. "Unfortunately, the state's inability to balance its checkbook will now mean short-changing taxpayers, local governments and small businesses."

Full article here

[Geolibertarian]

HOW CALIFORNIA COULD TURN ITS IOU’S INTO DOLLARS

Ellen Brown, July 22nd, 2009
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/california_iou.php

California has over $17 billion on deposit in banks that have refused to honor its IOUs, forcing legislators to accept crippling budget cuts. These austerity measures are unnecessary. If the state were to deposit its money in its own state-owned bank, it could have enough credit to solve its budget crisis with funds to spare.

 “We make money the old-fashioned way,” said Art Rolnick, chief economist of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve. “We print it.” That works for the federal government’s central bank, but states are forbidden by the Constitution to issue “bills of credit,” a term that has been interpreted to mean the state’s own paper money. “Sacramento is not Washington,” said California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in May. “We cannot print our own money.” When legislators could not agree on how to solve the state’s $26.3 billion budget deficit, the Governor therefore did the next best thing: he began paying the bills with IOUs (“I Owe You’s,” or promises to pay bearing interest).

The problem was that most banks declined to honor the IOUs, at least after July 24. “They said something about not wanting to enable the dysfunctional state legislature,” observed a San Diego Union-Tribune staff writer, “which is kind of funny as the federal government has been enabling the dysfunctional financial sector for almost a year.”

On July 21, California legislators were strong-armed into a tentative agreement on budget cuts, a forced move that was called “painful” by the Speaker of the Assembly and “devastating” by the executive director of the California State Association of Counties. The cuts involve more job losses, more bleeding of school funds, more closing of facilities. Worse, they will not solve the budget crisis long-term. The state’s economy is expected to continue to deteriorate along with its revenues. But without banks to honor the state’s IOUs, California has no time to negotiate or explore alternatives. There is no “quick fix,” says UCLA Professor Daniel Mitchell.

Or is there?

More Than One Way to Solve a Budget Crisis

Among the banks rejecting California’s IOUs are six of particular interest: Citibank, Union Bank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, and Westamerica Bank. These banks are interesting because they are six of the seven depository banks in which the state of California currently deposits its money. (The seventh is Bank of the West, which loyally said it would accept the IOUs indefinitely.)

Banks operate under federal or state charters that grant them special rights and privileges. Chartered banks are endowed with a gift that keeps on giving: they can “leverage” the value of their deposits into anywhere from ten to thirty times that sum in interest-bearing loans. This “multiplier effect” is attested to by many authorities, including President Obama himself. He said in a speech at Georgetown University on April 14:

“Although there are a lot of Americans who understandably think that government money would be better spent going directly to families and businesses instead of banks – ‘where’s our bailout?,’ they ask – the truth is that a dollar of capital in a bank can actually result in eight or ten dollars of loans to families and businesses, a multiplier effect that can ultimately lead to a faster pace of economic growth.”

The website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas explains:

“Banks actually create money when they lend it. Here’s how it works: Most of a bank’s loans are made to its own customers and are deposited in their checking accounts. Because the loan becomes a new deposit, just like a paycheck does, the bank . . . holds a small percentage of that new amount in reserve and again lends the remainder to someone else, repeating the money-creation process many times.”

Combine this with another interesting fact: according to the California Treasurer’s report, as of May 2009 the state had aggregate deposits and investments exceeding $55 billion. Of this sum, $1.1 billion was held in demand deposit accounts (non-interest-bearing accounts allowing unlimited deposits and withdrawals) and $16.5 billion was in NOW accounts (interest-bearing accounts allowing unlimited deposits and withdrawals). According to the Treasurer’s office, the non-interest-bearing demand deposits are held at the seven depository banks named earlier, while the NOW accounts are held at Citibank and Union Bank. Applying a “multiplier effect” of ten to the total sum on deposit at these seven banks ($17.6 billion), the banks collectively have the ability to make $176 billion in loans. At 5%, $176 billion can generate $8.8 billion in interest for the banks.

Rather than showing their gratitude by reciprocating, however, six of the seven depository banks have refused to honor California’s IOUs. Worse, three of these six actually received federal bailout money from the taxpayers, something that was supposedly done to keep credit flowing to the states and their citizens. Citibank got $45 billion in bailout money, Wells Fargo got $25 billion, and Bank of America got $45 billion, not to mention guarantees of $300 billion for Citibank and $118 billion for Bank of America. When Governor Schwarzenegger asked for a loan guarantee for a mere $6 billion to bolster California’s credit rating, on the other hand, he was turned down. Californians compose one-eighth of the nation’s population.

When the state’s appeal for aid was rejected by the banks, California State Treasurer Bill Lockyer said he was “disappointed.” He and other state leaders should show their disappointment with their feet. California could pull its deposits out of those depository banks refusing its IOUs and put them instead in its own state-owned bank, following the lead of North Dakota, which now has the only state-owned bank in the country. Set up in 1919 to escape Wall Street predators, the Bank of North Dakota has been generating low-interest credit for the state and its residents for nearly a century. North Dakota is one of only two states (along with Montana) currently able to meet their budgets.

A state-owned bank could be fast-tracked into operation in a matter of weeks. With over $17 billion available to deposit in its own bank, California could create $170 billion or more in credit -- enough not only to meet its budget shortfall but to fund many other much-needed projects; and rather than feeding an ungrateful Wall Street, the bank’s profits would return to the state and its people.