DARK WINTER Original Link:  http://www.homelandsecurity.org/darkwinter/index.cfm On 22-23 June, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies, the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention Terrorism, hosted a senior-level war game examining the national security, intergovernmental, and information challenges of a biological attack on the American homeland. With tensions rising in the Taiwan Straits, and a major crisis developing in Southwest Asia, a smallpox outbreak was confirmed by the CDC in Oklahoma City. During the thirteen days of the game, the disease spread to 25 states and 15 other countries. Fourteen participants and 60 observers witnessed terrorism/warfare in slow motion. Discussions, debates (some rather heated) and decisions focused on the public health response, lack of an adequate supply of smallpox vaccine, roles and missions of federal and state governments, civil liberties associated with quarantine and isolation, the role of DoD, and potential military responses to the anonymous attack. Additionally, a predictable 24/7 new cycle quickly developed that focused the nation and the world on the attack and response. Five representatives from the national press corps (including print and broadcast) participated in the game, including a lengthy press conference with the President. Several articles and reports will be produced in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, at least one Congressional hearing will be conducted to explore the lessons learned by the key participants. The first hearing is scheduled for the week of 22 July with the Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs and International Relations (Congressman Shays, Chairman). SCENARIO OVERVIEW DARK WINTER was an exercise designed to simulate possible US reaction to the deliberate introduction of smallpox in three states during the winter of 2002. KEY PLAYERS President The Hon. Sam Nunn National Security Advisor  The Hon. David Gergen Director of Central Intelligence The Hon. R. James Woolsey Secretary of Defense The Hon. John White Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff General John Tilelli (USA, Ret.) Secretary of Health & Human Services The Hon. Margaret Hamburg Secretary of State The Hon. Frank Wisner Attorney General The Hon. George Terwilliger Director, Federal Emergency Management Agency  Mr. Jerome Hauer Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation  The Hon. William Sessions Governor of Oklahoma The Hon. Frank Keating Press Secretary, Gov. Frank Keating (OK) Mr. Dan Mahoney Correspondent, NBC News Mr. Jim Miklaszewski Pentagon Producer, CBS News  Ms. Mary Walsh Reporter, British Broadcasting Corporation Ms. Sian Edwards Reporter, The New York Times Ms. Judith Miller Reporter, Freelance  Mr. Lester Reingold The players were introduced to this crisis during a National Security Council meeting scheduled to address several emerging crises, including the deployment of a carrier task force to the Middle East. At the start of the meeting, the Director of Health and Human Services informed the President of a confirmed case of smallpox in Oklahoma City. Additional smallpox cases were soon identified in Georgia and Pennsylvania. More cases appeared in Oklahoma. The source of the infection was unknown, and exposure was presumed to have taken place at least nine days earlier due to the lengthy incubation period of smallpox. Consequently, exposed individuals had likely traveled far from the loci of what was now presumed to be a biological attack. The exercise spanned 13 days, and served as a vehicle to illustrate the following points. EXERCISE LEARNING POINTS 1) An attack on the United States with biological weapons could threaten vital national security interests. Massive civilian casualties, breakdown in essential institutions, violation of democratic processes, civil disorder, loss of confidence in government and reduced US strategic flexibility abroad are among the ways a biological attack might compromise US security. 2) Current organizational structures and capabilities are not well suited for the management of a BW attack. Major “fault lines” exist between different levels of government (federal, state, and local), between government and the private sector, among different institutions and agencies, and within the public and private sector. These “disconnects” could impede situational awareness and compromise the ability to limit loss of life, suffering, and economic damage. 3) There is no surge capability in the US health care and public health systems, or the pharmaceutical and vaccine industries. This institutionally limited surge capacity could result in hospitals being overwhelmed and becoming inoperable; could impede public health agencies’ analysis of the scope, source and progress of the epidemic, the ability to educate and reassure the public, and the capacity to limit causalities and the spread of disease. 4) Dealing with the media will be a major, immediate challenge for all levels of government. Information management and communication (e.g., dealing with the press effectively, communication with citizens, maintaining the information flows necessary for command and control at all institutional levels) will be a critical element in crisis/consequence management. 5) Should a contagious bioweapon pathogen be used, containing the spread of disease will present significant ethical, political, cultural, operational and legal challenges. SMALLPOX, because of its high case-fatality rates and transmissibility, represents one of the most serious biological warfare threats to the civilian population. In 1980, the World Health Assembly announced that smallpox had been eradicated and recommended that all countries cease vaccination. Although labs in two countries still officially store smallpox samples (US and Russia), its re-appearance would almost certainly indicate an intentional outbreak. Aerosol release of smallpox virus disseminated among a relatively small population could result in a significant epidemic. Evidence suggests the infectious dose is very small. Several factors are cause for concern: the disease has historically been feared as one of the most serious of all pestilential diseases; it is physically disfiguring; it bears a 30 percent case-fatality rate; there is no treatment; it is communicable from person to person. Vaccination ceased in this country in 1972, and vaccination immunity acquired before that time has undoubtedly waned. Prior to eradication, data on smallpox outbreaks in Europe indicated that victims had the potential to infect 10 to 20 others. However, there has never been a smallpox outbreak in such a densely populated, highly mobile, unvaccinated population such as exists today. In 1947, in response to a single case of smallpox in New York City, 6,350,000 people were immunized (500,000 in one day), including President Harry Truman. In 1972, after disappearing from Yugoslavia for four decades, a single case of smallpox emerged. There are two ways to control a smallpox epidemic – vaccine and isolation. Yugoslavia’s Communist leader, Josip Tito, used both. He instituted a nation-wide quarantine, and immunized the entire country of 20 million people using vaccine supplied by the World Health Organization. Estimates of the current US supply of smallpox vaccine range from seven to twelve million doses. This stock cannot be immediately replenished, since all vaccine production facilities were dismantled after 1980, and renewed vaccine production is estimated to require at least 24-36 months. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently contracted with Acambis Inc. of Cambridge MA to produce 40 million doses of new vaccine. Initial deliveries will not begin before 2004. “DARK WINTER”was developed and produced by: The Center for Strategic and International Studies www.csis.org Contact: Dr. John Hamre, President & CEO (202) 775-3227 The Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies www.hopkins-biodefense.org Contact: Dr. Tara O’Toole, Deputy Director (410) 223-1667 The ANSER Institute for Homeland Security www.homelandsecurity.org Contact: Col. Randy Larsen (Ret.), Director (703) 416-3597 The Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism www.mipt.org Contact: General Dennis J. Reimer (Ret.), Director (405) 232-5121 EXERCISE OBSERVERS   Ms. Ann Beauchesne Program Director, Emergency Management & Environment National Governors Association Ms. Luciana Borio Assistant Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies Dr. David Bowen Congressional Fellow Office of Senator Edward Kennedy Maj. Craig Cady Legislative Fellow Office of Representative Jim Saxton Mr. Mike Casey Legislative Assistant Office of Representative Vic Snyder CPT Joni Charme Deputy Legal Advisor Joint Task Force Civil Support Mr. Frank Cilluffo Deputy Director, Global Organized Crime Project Center for Strategic & International Studies Dr. Anthony Cordesman The Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Center for Strategic & International Studies MG Stephen Cortwright The Adjutant General Oklahoma Military Department Dr. Ruth David President and CEO Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER) Mr. Skip Fischer Legislative Assistant Office of Senator Jon Kyl Mr. Jeffrey Fuller Manager, Regional Conflict Division Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER) Maj. General Gregory Gardner, NGB Adjutant General and Director of Emergency Management State of Kansas Mr. Jim Gass Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism Dr. James Hodge Project Director - Center for the Law & the Public's Health Johns Hopkins and Georgetown Universities  Mr. Krister Holladay Deputy Chief of Staff Office of Representative Saxby Chambliss Mr. Michael Hurt Senior Policy Advisor Office of Representative Jim Saxton Mr. Joseph Jakub Professional Staff Member House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence COL Robert Kadlec, MD Professor of Military Strategy and Operations National War College Dr. Lani Kass Senior Policy Advisor Strategic Plans and Policy, J-5 Dr. Barry Kellman Professor Depaul University School of Law Ms. Kim Kotlar Military Legislative Assistant Office of Representative Mac Thornberry Mr. Gordon Lederman Associate Arnold & Porter Mr. Jim Lewis Professional Staff Member House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Dr. Scott Lillibridge Director, Bioterrorism Preparedness Program Centers for Disease Control Mr. Jim Martin Secretary-Treasurer NGA-Past Governors Association Mrs. Barbara Martinez Chief, WMD Operations Unit Federal Bureau of Investigation Mr. Dan McConkie Staff Assistant to the Vice Chairman Joint Economic Committee, Joint Committee of Congress  Mr. Alan McCurry Military Legislative Assistant Office of Senator Pat Roberts Ms. Lisa Moreno-Hix Director of Programs Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism Mr. Bill Natter Professional Staff Member House Armed Services Committee Dr. Paula Olsiewski Program Director Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Mr. R. Nicholas Palarino Senior Policy Analyst U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on National Security House Committee on Government Reform  Mr. Michael Powers Research Associate Chemical & Biological Arms Control Institute Ms. Linnea Raine Visiting Department of Energy Fellow Center for Strategic & International Studies General Dennis Reimer (USA, Ret.) Director Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism Dr. Peter Roman Chairman, Department of Political Science at Duquesne University and Senior Fellow at the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security Mr. Richard Saunders Principal Booz-Allen & Hamilton, Inc. Dr. Monica Schoch-Spana Medical Anthropologist & Research Associate Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies  Mr. Danny Seabright Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy  Mr. John Sirek Director, Citizenship Program Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation Mr. Jeffrey Smith Partner Arnold & Porter Mr. Henry St. Germain Senior Consultant Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER) Col. Stephen Waller, USAF Director, USAF Surgeon General's Tactical Action Team HQUSAF/SGT Dr. Marion Warwick Medical Epidemiologist Emergency Terrorism Response Unit Missouri Department of Health    EXERCISE STAFF   The Honorable John Hamre President and CEO Center for Strategic & International Studies The Honorable Tara O'Toole Deputy Director Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies Col. Randall Larsen (USAF, Ret.) Director, ANSER Institute for Homeland Security Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER) Ms. Sue Reingold Visiting National Security Agency Fellow Center for Strategic & International Studies Dr. Thomas Inglesby Senior Fellow Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies Mr. Michael Mair Fellow Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies Ms. Joyce Whiting ANSER Institute for Homeland Security Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER) Mr. Mark DeMier Editor-in-Chief, The Journal of Homeland Security Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER) Mr. John Wohlfarth Research Analyst, ANSER Institute for Homeland Security Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER) Mr. Robertson Gile Research Assistant Center for Strategic & International Studies