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North Korea missiles rattle cages, steel hawks

Jack Kim / Reuters | June 15 2006

South Korea called on the North on Wednesday to stop preparations for a ballistic missile test, saying it threatened regional security and caused grave concern.

Analysts said the North might not in fact test a missile, but reminding the world of its arsenal bolstered hardliners in Pyongyang who wanted to show military strength and those in Washington who wanted to counter a potential North Korean threat.

U.S. officials said on Monday North Korea was making plans to test an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States and that the launch could come soon.

Washington is discussing how it would respond to a test, and the United States and Japan have moved "assets" into position to monitor and collect data on any launch, the officials said.

South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon told reporters a test could set back talks on resolving one of the region's pressing security issues -- North Korea's nuclear arms ambitions.

"If North Korea fires a missile now while the six-party talks remain off and questions are being raised in the international community about the effectiveness of the talks, there is a possibility it will have a seriously negative impact on the resolution of the North Korean nuclear problem," Ban said.

The last round of the nuclear talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States was held in November.

North Korea has missiles that can hit all of South Korea and probably all of Japan, many experts have said.

It has been modernizing its arsenal and trying to improve problems with accuracy, but it lacks an operational missile that can hit the continental United States, the California-based Center for Nonproliferation Studies said in a recent report.

Daniel Pinkston, an expert at the think tank, told Reuters by telephone that while North Korea would factor in the effect on international relations if it decided to conduct a test, domestic politics were also a concern for North Korean leaders.

"A launch would have all of these nationalistic overtones and resonates domestically," Pinkston said, adding that it would help shore up army support and remind communist party members of the country's might as it faces a U.S.-led crackdown on its finances.

In Washington, news of a possible missile test added to the arguments of those pushing for stronger missile defences.

"Quite often when there is a spiral of hostility, the hawks on the two opposing sides help each other out," Pinkston said.

A test would be Pyongyang's first of a long-range missile since it stunned the world in 1998 by firing a Taepodong that passed over Japan and landed in the Pacific.

Analysts in Tokyo said Pyongyang was probably trying to prod Washington into making concessions in an attempt to draw North Korea back to the six-party nuclear talks.

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