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Dollar Drop Slows With G-7 Blessing; Shows No Endgame

Anchalee Worrachate
Bloomberg
Monday, April 21, 2008

Traders betting on intervention by the Group of Seven nations to stem the dollar's 7.7 percent decline against the euro this year may be disappointed.

Finance ministers are less concerned about the currency's relative value than the risks from ``sharp fluctuations'' in exchange rates, their April 11 statement shows. Those swings, as measured by JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s index of implied volatility on dollar options, are abating. Finance ministers object to rising volatility because it complicates the assessment of economies, interferes with monetary policy and gives companies little time to adjust by cutting costs.

Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG, the two biggest currency traders, say the decline in volatility means the likelihood of buying or selling currencies in concert to halt the dollar's slide has diminished even with the greenback at record lows. Before the G-7 meeting in Washington, strategists including Stephen Jen, head of currency research at Morgan Stanley, speculated that the world's richest nations might intervene.

``It's not about levels but the volatility,'' said Geoffrey Yu, a foreign-exchange strategist in Zurich at UBS. ``If the dollar drops in a gradual fashion, they are unlikely to act. There's not really a meeting of minds as to when intervention is needed.''

Implied volatility on options for the dollar fell to 11.28 percent after the G-7 meeting on April 11. It was 14.5 percent on March 17, the same level at which the G-7 stepped into the market in 1995 to influence prices.

Full article here.

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